THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jun 10, 2026, 03:58 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.53%	−0.02	97%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.63%	+0.01	49%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.89%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.63%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y yield is at a median level, suggesting moderate short-term interest rate expectations.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, reflecting a normal yield curve but with potential flattening.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term funding conditions.

Risk Watch	The high 10Y yield may signal potential headwinds for economic growth.
Opportunity Watch	The positive yield spread could present opportunities in long-duration assets.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	1.29%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5855	-1.84%	0.5156	0.7712	37%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.959	—	0.942	1.242	5%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities.
Equity yield compared to bond yield signals a potential preference for equities over fixed income.

Risk Watch	Market volatility may increase as economic indicators fluctuate.
Opportunity Watch	Continued strength in industrial metals could signal growth in manufacturing sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	2.02%	34%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.50%	15%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.60 pp	60%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-04
CSI 300 spot	4,754.80	−0.98%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China's Macro Snapshot Analysis

Credit Impulse indicates a moderate growth outlook with a positive value.
Equity Risk Premium suggests low investor confidence in equities.
M1-M2 Growth Gap reflects a contraction in money supply growth.
Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion phase.

Risk Watch	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal potential market volatility ahead.
Opportunity Watch	The positive Credit Impulse could indicate emerging growth opportunities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	98	−0.22σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed hold rates at the next FOMC meeting?	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
Will the Fed cut by ≥ 75bps by year-end 2026?	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
Will US Q2 real GDP print above +1.5% annualised?	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index suggests moderate economic activity at 98.
Probabilities indicate a 68% chance the Fed will hold rates at the next FOMC meeting.
There is a 31% chance of a significant rate cut (≥ 75bps) by year-end 2026.
A 57% probability exists for US Q2 real GDP to exceed +1.5% annualized.

Risk Watch	Economic indicators suggest uncertainty in growth prospects, which may impact market stability.
Opportunity Watch	The moderate probability of GDP growth above 1.5% could signal potential for positive economic developments.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jun 10, 2026, 03:58 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.53%	−0.02	97%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.63%	+0.01	49%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.89%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.63%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y yield is at a median level, suggesting moderate short-term interest rate expectations.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, reflecting a normal yield curve but with potential flattening.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term funding conditions.

Risk Watch	The high 10Y yield may signal potential headwinds for economic growth.
Opportunity Watch	The positive yield spread could present opportunities in long-duration assets.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	1.29%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5855	-1.84%	0.5156	0.7712	37%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.959	—	0.942	1.242	5%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities.
Equity yield compared to bond yield signals a potential preference for equities over fixed income.

Risk Watch	Market volatility may increase as economic indicators fluctuate.
Opportunity Watch	Continued strength in industrial metals could signal growth in manufacturing sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	2.02%	34%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.50%	15%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.60 pp	60%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-04
CSI 300 spot	4,754.80	−0.98%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China's Macro Snapshot Analysis

Credit Impulse indicates a moderate growth outlook with a positive value.
Equity Risk Premium suggests low investor confidence in equities.
M1-M2 Growth Gap reflects a contraction in money supply growth.
Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion phase.

Risk Watch	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal potential market volatility ahead.
Opportunity Watch	The positive Credit Impulse could indicate emerging growth opportunities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	98	−0.22σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed hold rates at the next FOMC meeting?	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
Will the Fed cut by ≥ 75bps by year-end 2026?	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
Will US Q2 real GDP print above +1.5% annualised?	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index suggests moderate economic activity at 98.
Probabilities indicate a 68% chance the Fed will hold rates at the next FOMC meeting.
There is a 31% chance of a significant rate cut (≥ 75bps) by year-end 2026.
A 57% probability exists for US Q2 real GDP to exceed +1.5% annualized.

Risk Watch	Economic indicators suggest uncertainty in growth prospects, which may impact market stability.
Opportunity Watch	The moderate probability of GDP growth above 1.5% could signal potential for positive economic developments.