THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jul 28, 2026, 06:12 AM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.64%	−0.04	98%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.80%	−0.01	73%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.84%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.80%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
The 2Y yield is moderately elevated, suggesting a tightening monetary environment.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive but narrowing, indicating potential concerns about future growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

Risk Watch	The narrowing yield spread may signal an impending slowdown in economic growth.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in monetary policy that could impact liquidity conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.06%	0.0011	0.0017	94%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5507	0.12%	0.5156	0.7712	21%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.954	—	0.940	1.249	4%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting positive economic momentum.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a risk-off sentiment, with gold underperforming equities.
Equity yield compared to bond yield suggests equities are less attractive, indicating potential market caution.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of the Equity Yield/Bond Yield ratio may signal an impending market correction.
Opportunity Watch	The high Copper/Gold ratio could present opportunities in sectors tied to industrial growth.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	3%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.89%	69%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	57%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-06
CSI 300 spot	4,702.43	+1.15%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued assets.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	124	+2.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$30,200,895	2026-07-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$20,659,336	2026-07-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$17,162,842	2026-07-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion Indicated

Pizza Index at 124 suggests increased economic activity.
Equal probabilities for Fed interest rate changes indicate uncertainty in monetary policy direction.
Current readings reflect a balanced outlook on growth and inflation.
Market participants may be positioned for continued economic stability.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Increased economic activity may present growth opportunities in various sectors.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jul 28, 2026, 06:12 AM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.64%	−0.04	98%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.80%	−0.01	73%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.84%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.80%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
The 2Y yield is moderately elevated, suggesting a tightening monetary environment.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive but narrowing, indicating potential concerns about future growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

Risk Watch	The narrowing yield spread may signal an impending slowdown in economic growth.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in monetary policy that could impact liquidity conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.06%	0.0011	0.0017	94%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5507	0.12%	0.5156	0.7712	21%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.954	—	0.940	1.249	4%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting positive economic momentum.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a risk-off sentiment, with gold underperforming equities.
Equity yield compared to bond yield suggests equities are less attractive, indicating potential market caution.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of the Equity Yield/Bond Yield ratio may signal an impending market correction.
Opportunity Watch	The high Copper/Gold ratio could present opportunities in sectors tied to industrial growth.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	3%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.89%	69%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	57%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-06
CSI 300 spot	4,702.43	+1.15%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued assets.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	124	+2.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$30,200,895	2026-07-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$20,659,336	2026-07-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	50%	$17,162,842	2026-07-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion Indicated

Pizza Index at 124 suggests increased economic activity.
Equal probabilities for Fed interest rate changes indicate uncertainty in monetary policy direction.
Current readings reflect a balanced outlook on growth and inflation.
Market participants may be positioned for continued economic stability.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Increased economic activity may present growth opportunities in various sectors.