— MACRO RESEARCH TERMINAL —
THE MARKET DESK
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Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。
Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.
Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.
| Ratio | Current | Δ | 52-W %ile | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.53% | −0.02 | 97% | ^TNX (×10) |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 3.63% | +0.01 | 49% | ^IRX (13-W proxy) |
| 10Y - 2Y Spread | +0.89% | — | — | Curve upward-sloping |
| SOFR (overnight) | 3.63% | — | — | short-end proxy |
Late-cycle Expansion
| Risk Watch | The high 10Y yield may signal potential headwinds for economic growth. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The positive yield spread could present opportunities in long-duration assets. |
| Ratio | Current | Δ | 52-W Low | 52-W High | 52-W %ile | AI Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F | 0.0015 | 1.29% | 0.0011 | 0.0017 | 90% | Peak / Overheating |
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC | 0.5855 | -1.84% | 0.5156 | 0.7712 | 37% | Recovery |
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX | 0.959 | — | 0.942 | 1.242 | 5% | Trough / Early Recovery |
Mid-cycle Expansion
| Risk Watch | Market volatility may increase as economic indicators fluctuate. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | Continued strength in industrial metals could signal growth in manufacturing sectors. |
| Ratio | Current | 52-W %ile | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Impulse (proxy) | 2.02% | 34% | CSI 300 3-month ROC |
| Equity Risk Premium | +3.50% | 15% | proxy: E/P − UST 10Y |
| M1 - M2 Growth Gap | −3.60 pp | 60% | Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-04 |
| CSI 300 spot | 4,754.80 | −0.98% | 000300.SS |
China's Macro Snapshot Analysis
| Risk Watch | The low Equity Risk Premium may signal potential market volatility ahead. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The positive Credit Impulse could indicate emerging growth opportunities. |
| Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity) | Current | z-score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pizza Index (experimental) | 98 | −0.22σ | Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity |
| Market | YES | Vol. | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed hold rates at the next FOMC meeting? | 68% | $4,820,000 | 2026-05-01 |
| Will the Fed cut by ≥ 75bps by year-end 2026? | 31% | $2,140,000 | 2026-12-31 |
| Will US Q2 real GDP print above +1.5% annualised? | 57% | $1,035,000 | 2026-07-30 |
Macro Snapshot Analysis
| Risk Watch | Economic indicators suggest uncertainty in growth prospects, which may impact market stability. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The moderate probability of GDP growth above 1.5% could signal potential for positive economic developments. |