THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Sep 11, 2026, 05:12 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.94%	+0.11	100%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.85%	+0.04	88%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.10%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.85%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a low percentile, indicating potential market caution.
2Y yield is relatively high, suggesting short-term rate expectations are elevated.
The positive 10Y-2Y spread indicates a normal yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

Risk Watch	The low 10Y yield percentile may signal investor concerns about future growth.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for potential shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	0.68%	0.0011	0.0016	84%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5783	-0.07%	0.5278	0.7712	32%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.884	—	0.884	1.262	0%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting positive economic sentiment.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a risk-off sentiment as equities underperform gold, indicating potential market caution.
Equity Yield/Bond Yield suggests a significant premium for equities, pointing to investor confidence in stock market returns.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of the Equity Yield/Bond Yield ratio may signal an overvaluation in equities.
Opportunity Watch	The strong Copper/Gold ratio could indicate potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	4%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.62%	77%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.70 pp	58%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-07
CSI 300 spot	4,548.39	−0.53%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential entry points for long-term investments.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	111	+1.22σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$22,046,454	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$27,725,621	2026-09-16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$34,475,311	2026-09-16

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable activity at 111, suggesting ongoing economic engagement.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for a 25 bps increase, decrease, or no change in Fed interest rates post-September 2026.
The mixed signals from interest rate probabilities indicate uncertainty in future monetary policy direction.
Overall, the readings suggest a neutral business-cycle regime with no clear indication of expansion or contraction.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions may lead to increased market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Stable economic activity could present opportunities for sectors benefiting from consistent consumer engagement.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Sep 11, 2026, 05:12 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.94%	+0.11	100%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.85%	+0.04	88%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.10%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.85%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a low percentile, indicating potential market caution.
2Y yield is relatively high, suggesting short-term rate expectations are elevated.
The positive 10Y-2Y spread indicates a normal yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

Risk Watch	The low 10Y yield percentile may signal investor concerns about future growth.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for potential shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	0.68%	0.0011	0.0016	84%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5783	-0.07%	0.5278	0.7712	32%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.884	—	0.884	1.262	0%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting positive economic sentiment.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a risk-off sentiment as equities underperform gold, indicating potential market caution.
Equity Yield/Bond Yield suggests a significant premium for equities, pointing to investor confidence in stock market returns.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of the Equity Yield/Bond Yield ratio may signal an overvaluation in equities.
Opportunity Watch	The strong Copper/Gold ratio could indicate potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	4%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.62%	77%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.70 pp	58%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-07
CSI 300 spot	4,548.39	−0.53%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential entry points for long-term investments.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	111	+1.22σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$22,046,454	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$27,725,621	2026-09-16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$34,475,311	2026-09-16

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable activity at 111, suggesting ongoing economic engagement.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for a 25 bps increase, decrease, or no change in Fed interest rates post-September 2026.
The mixed signals from interest rate probabilities indicate uncertainty in future monetary policy direction.
Overall, the readings suggest a neutral business-cycle regime with no clear indication of expansion or contraction.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions may lead to increased market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Stable economic activity could present opportunities for sectors benefiting from consistent consumer engagement.