THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Oct 27, 2026, 03:59 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.99%	−0.00	90%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	4.03%	−0.01	93%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.96%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	4.03%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a flattening yield curve, often seen in late-cycle phases.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market response to monetary policy.

Risk Watch	The flattening yield curve may signal potential economic slowdown or recession risks.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in monetary policy that could impact yield dynamics.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.77%	0.0011	0.0016	100%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5257	-1.06%	0.5257	0.7730	0%	Trough / Early Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.894	—	0.828	1.298	9%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Copper / Gold ratio indicates extreme weakness in industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold / S&P 500 ratio suggests significant risk aversion among investors.
Equity Yield / Bond Yield indicates a preference for bonds over equities, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

Risk Watch	The current market signals suggest a heightened risk of economic contraction.
Opportunity Watch	Potential exists for a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets as valuations adjust.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	—	—	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.35%	100%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	56%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-09
CSI 300 spot	4,103.54	−0.04%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in money supply growth.
The Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights on credit conditions.

Risk Watch	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions.
Opportunity Watch	The high Equity Risk Premium could present potential value opportunities in equities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	100	+0.00σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$23,877,355	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$12,623,802	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$16,644,951	2026-10-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 100.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for no change, decrease, or increase in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting.
The mixed signals suggest uncertainty in monetary policy direction.
Overall, the readings reflect a neutral stance in the business cycle.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to increased market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Monitoring the Pizza Index may provide insights into future economic activity trends.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Oct 27, 2026, 03:59 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.99%	−0.00	90%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	4.03%	−0.01	93%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.96%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	4.03%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a flattening yield curve, often seen in late-cycle phases.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market response to monetary policy.

Risk Watch	The flattening yield curve may signal potential economic slowdown or recession risks.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in monetary policy that could impact yield dynamics.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.77%	0.0011	0.0016	100%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5257	-1.06%	0.5257	0.7730	0%	Trough / Early Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.894	—	0.828	1.298	9%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Copper / Gold ratio indicates extreme weakness in industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold / S&P 500 ratio suggests significant risk aversion among investors.
Equity Yield / Bond Yield indicates a preference for bonds over equities, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

Risk Watch	The current market signals suggest a heightened risk of economic contraction.
Opportunity Watch	Potential exists for a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets as valuations adjust.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	—	—	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.35%	100%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	56%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-09
CSI 300 spot	4,103.54	−0.04%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in money supply growth.
The Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights on credit conditions.

Risk Watch	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions.
Opportunity Watch	The high Equity Risk Premium could present potential value opportunities in equities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	100	+0.00σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$23,877,355	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$12,623,802	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$16,644,951	2026-10-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 100.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for no change, decrease, or increase in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting.
The mixed signals suggest uncertainty in monetary policy direction.
Overall, the readings reflect a neutral stance in the business cycle.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to increased market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	Monitoring the Pizza Index may provide insights into future economic activity trends.