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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年6月10日 GMT+8 15:58

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.53%	−0.02	97%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.63%	+0.01	49%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.89%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.63%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y yield is at a median level, suggesting moderate short-term interest rate expectations.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting stable short-term funding conditions.

风险提示	High long-term yields may signal potential economic overheating.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	1.29%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5855	-1.84%	0.5156	0.7712	37%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.959	—	0.942	1.242	5%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Current Business-Cycle Regime: Late-cycle Expansion

The copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities over gold.
The stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities, signaling potential market overheating.

风险提示	A potential market correction may occur as valuations appear stretched in the late-cycle phase.
机会关注	Monitor shifts in the copper-to-gold ratio for signs of changing industrial demand dynamics.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	2.02%	34%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.50%	15%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.60 pp	60%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-04
沪深 300 现价	4,754.80	−0.98%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is low, indicating weak credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is elevated, suggesting investor caution.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions.

风险提示	Continued economic weakness may lead to further declines in asset prices.
机会关注	Potential for recovery signals if credit conditions improve.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	98	−0.22σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed hold rates at the next FOMC meeting?	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
Will the Fed cut by ≥ 75bps by year-end 2026?	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
Will US Q2 real GDP print above +1.5% annualised?	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Current Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 98.
Probability of the Fed holding rates at the next FOMC meeting is relatively high at 68%.
There is a 31% chance of a significant rate cut by year-end 2026.
The likelihood of US Q2 real GDP exceeding 1.5% annualized is at 57%.

风险提示	The mixed signals regarding GDP growth and potential rate cuts may indicate economic uncertainty.
机会关注	The moderate activity level suggests potential for growth in certain sectors.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年6月10日 GMT+8 15:58

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.53%	−0.02	97%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.63%	+0.01	49%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.89%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.63%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y yield is at a median level, suggesting moderate short-term interest rate expectations.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting stable short-term funding conditions.

风险提示	High long-term yields may signal potential economic overheating.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	1.29%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5855	-1.84%	0.5156	0.7712	37%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.959	—	0.942	1.242	5%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Current Business-Cycle Regime: Late-cycle Expansion

The copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities over gold.
The stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities, signaling potential market overheating.

风险提示	A potential market correction may occur as valuations appear stretched in the late-cycle phase.
机会关注	Monitor shifts in the copper-to-gold ratio for signs of changing industrial demand dynamics.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	2.02%	34%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.50%	15%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.60 pp	60%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-04
沪深 300 现价	4,754.80	−0.98%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is low, indicating weak credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is elevated, suggesting investor caution.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions.

风险提示	Continued economic weakness may lead to further declines in asset prices.
机会关注	Potential for recovery signals if credit conditions improve.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	98	−0.22σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed hold rates at the next FOMC meeting?	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
Will the Fed cut by ≥ 75bps by year-end 2026?	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
Will US Q2 real GDP print above +1.5% annualised?	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Current Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 98.
Probability of the Fed holding rates at the next FOMC meeting is relatively high at 68%.
There is a 31% chance of a significant rate cut by year-end 2026.
The likelihood of US Q2 real GDP exceeding 1.5% annualized is at 57%.

风险提示	The mixed signals regarding GDP growth and potential rate cuts may indicate economic uncertainty.
机会关注	The moderate activity level suggests potential for growth in certain sectors.