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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年9月11日 GMT+8 17:12

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

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模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.94%	+0.11	100%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.85%	+0.04	88%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+1.10%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.85%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is significantly low, indicating potential economic slowdown.
2Y yield is relatively high, suggesting short-term interest rate expectations are elevated.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, but narrowing, which may signal a flattening yield curve.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

风险提示	The narrowing yield spread could indicate increasing recession risks.
机会关注	Monitor for potential shifts in monetary policy as yields adjust.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	0.68%	0.0011	0.0016	84%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5783	-0.07%	0.5278	0.7712	32%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.884	—	0.884	1.262	0%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Business Cycle Analysis

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests lower confidence in equities compared to gold.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for bonds over stocks, signaling risk aversion.

风险提示	The low percentile of the stock-to-bond yield ratio indicates potential market instability.
机会关注	The high percentile of the copper-to-gold ratio may signal growth opportunities in industrial sectors.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	-3.33%	4%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.62%	77%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.70 pp	58%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-07
沪深 300 现价	4,548.39	−0.53%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, pointing to a slowdown in money supply growth.

风险提示	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
机会关注	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued equities.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	111	+1.22σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$22,046,454	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$27,725,621	2026-09-16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$34,475,311	2026-09-16

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 111.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026 meeting.
Uncertainty in monetary policy direction may influence market volatility.
Current indicators suggest a neutral business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential market instability as expectations may shift rapidly.
机会关注	The stable Pizza Index suggests potential for growth in consumer-related sectors.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年9月11日 GMT+8 17:12

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.94%	+0.11	100%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.85%	+0.04	88%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+1.10%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.85%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is significantly low, indicating potential economic slowdown.
2Y yield is relatively high, suggesting short-term interest rate expectations are elevated.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, but narrowing, which may signal a flattening yield curve.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting current short-term borrowing costs.

风险提示	The narrowing yield spread could indicate increasing recession risks.
机会关注	Monitor for potential shifts in monetary policy as yields adjust.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	0.68%	0.0011	0.0016	84%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5783	-0.07%	0.5278	0.7712	32%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.884	—	0.884	1.262	0%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Business Cycle Analysis

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests lower confidence in equities compared to gold.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for bonds over stocks, signaling risk aversion.

风险提示	The low percentile of the stock-to-bond yield ratio indicates potential market instability.
机会关注	The high percentile of the copper-to-gold ratio may signal growth opportunities in industrial sectors.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	-3.33%	4%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.62%	77%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.70 pp	58%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-07
沪深 300 现价	4,548.39	−0.53%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, pointing to a slowdown in money supply growth.

风险提示	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic weakening.
机会关注	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued equities.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	111	+1.22σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$22,046,454	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$27,725,621	2026-09-16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$34,475,311	2026-09-16

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 111.
Market expectations show equal probabilities for Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026 meeting.
Uncertainty in monetary policy direction may influence market volatility.
Current indicators suggest a neutral business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential market instability as expectations may shift rapidly.
机会关注	The stable Pizza Index suggests potential for growth in consumer-related sectors.