THE MARKET DESK

宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年10月27日 GMT+8 17:53

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.99%	−0.00	90%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	4.03%	−0.01	93%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.96%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	4.03%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a flattening yield curve, often seen in late-cycle phases.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market response to monetary policy.

风险提示	Elevated yields may signal potential economic slowdown or tightening monetary policy.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in yield curve dynamics that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.77%	0.0011	0.0016	100%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5257	-1.06%	0.5257	0.7730	0%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.894	—	0.828	1.298	9%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates extreme bearish sentiment.
Gold to S&P 500 ratio suggests significant risk aversion.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio is relatively low, reflecting cautious market behavior.

风险提示	The current readings suggest a heightened risk of economic contraction.
机会关注	Potential for value opportunities may arise as market sentiment shifts.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	—	—	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.35%	100%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−4.00 pp	56%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-09
沪深 300 现价	4,103.54	−0.04%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in money supply growth.
Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights into credit dynamics.

风险提示	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal potential liquidity constraints.
机会关注	The high Equity Risk Premium could present attractive entry points for long-term investments.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	100	+0.00σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$23,877,355	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$12,623,802	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$16,644,951	2026-10-29

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 100.
Probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-October 2026 meeting.
Equal likelihood of no change, decrease, or increase in interest rates reflects market indecision.
Current readings suggest a neutral business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential volatility in market expectations.
机会关注	Monitoring the Pizza Index may provide insights into future economic activity trends.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年10月27日 GMT+8 17:53

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.99%	−0.00	90%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	4.03%	−0.01	93%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.96%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	4.03%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a flattening yield curve, often seen in late-cycle phases.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market response to monetary policy.

风险提示	Elevated yields may signal potential economic slowdown or tightening monetary policy.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in yield curve dynamics that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.77%	0.0011	0.0016	100%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5257	-1.06%	0.5257	0.7730	0%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.894	—	0.828	1.298	9%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates extreme bearish sentiment.
Gold to S&P 500 ratio suggests significant risk aversion.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio is relatively low, reflecting cautious market behavior.

风险提示	The current readings suggest a heightened risk of economic contraction.
机会关注	Potential for value opportunities may arise as market sentiment shifts.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	—	—	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.35%	100%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−4.00 pp	56%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-09
沪深 300 现价	4,103.54	−0.04%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in money supply growth.
Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights into credit dynamics.

风险提示	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal potential liquidity constraints.
机会关注	The high Equity Risk Premium could present attractive entry points for long-term investments.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	100	+0.00σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$23,877,355	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$12,623,802	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$16,644,951	2026-10-29

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 100.
Probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-October 2026 meeting.
Equal likelihood of no change, decrease, or increase in interest rates reflects market indecision.
Current readings suggest a neutral business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential volatility in market expectations.
机会关注	Monitoring the Pizza Index may provide insights into future economic activity trends.